In the 1997 federal election, the BQ won 44 seats, but the Reform Party became the Official Opposition, with 60 seats (all its seats won in Western Canada). In the 2000 federal election, the BQ won 38 seats, with the Canadian Alliance (which had emerged out of the broadening of the Reform Party) winning 66 seats (64 in Western Canada, and two in Ontario). In 2003, the Parti Quebecois government was decisively defeated by the Liberal Party in Quebec, which gave the impression that separatism was ebbing.

However, the fortunes of the Bloc Quebecois revived in time for the federal election of June 28, 2004, partly in reaction to the federal sponsorship scandal, where at least 100 million dollars (Canadian) had gone to Quebec Liberal Party cronies. The Bloc Quebecois won 54 seats. The rest of Quebec’s 75 seats went to the Liberals. The Conservative Party – which was reconstituted in December 2003 out of the merger of the Canadian Alliance and the “ultra-moderate” federal Progressive Conservatives – at that time had a minimal presence in Quebec. However, in the 2006 and 2008 federal elections, the Conservative Party was able to win 10 seats in Quebec – while the BQ continued to hold most Quebec seats. However, the federal election of May 2, 2011 marked major change. While the Conservatives managed to win five seats in Quebec, the BQ was annihilated down to four seats, with 59 seats won by the NDP! Quebec, which has a bit of a reputation for doing the unexpected, had pulled off another surprise.
Quebec today is largely defined by its modern Quebecois nationalism, an outlook that mixes traditionalism and progressivism. It is especially “progressive” in its secularism, in its virtual repudiation of the Roman Catholic traditions of Quebec, which had been considered almost definitional of Quebecois identity for most of Quebec’s history. Today, Québec separatism to some extent appears to be waning. One of the reasons for the apparent waning of separatism is that Québec is simply being flooded with all kinds of economic benefits to persuade it to remain in Canada, a process that has been ongoing for at least four decades. At least some “non-separatist nationalists” feel that the Québécois are already maitres chez nous ("masters in our own house").

In late 2011, there arose a new political grouping on the Quebec provincial scene. This was the Coalition for the Future of Quebec (Coalition pour l’avenir du Quebec) (CAQ), led by Francois Legault and Charles Sirois (a prominent businessman). It polled surprisingly well for a new party. It said that the issue of sovereignty should be downplayed. Rather, the CAQ offered efficient management of the economy – calling itself “le gauche efficace” – the “efficient Left”. The ADQ (Action democratique du Quebec) which had been reduced down to 7 seats in the Quebec provincial election of December 8, 2008, readily dissolved itself, in favour of joining the CAQ. In the prior 2007 provincial election, the ADQ had become the Official Opposition to the Liberals, winning 41 seats, while the PQ had come in third. The ADQ was a smaller, centre-right party, that had arisen only in the 1990s.

In the September 4, 2012 election, the PQ won 54 seats, the Liberals, 50, and the CAQ, 19. The very left-wing as well as separatist Quebec solidaire won 2 seats. A minority PQ government has been formed, but an election could occur relatively soon, should the government be defeated on a major bill, or if they feel calling an election could be opportune.

One of today's ironies is the fact that secularization and modernization have given Québec one of Canada's lowest birthrates and highest abortion rates -- creating a demographic crisis in a society once known for its very large families, and for its so-called "revenge of the cradle" against the English. It could be argued that Québécois nationalists will have to re-evaluate their relationships to what is called “the rest of Canada” (TROC), to their own traditionalist past, and to the massive inflow of Third World immigration into Québec, if they are indeed seriously interested in their survival as a nation and people over the coming centuries.

Mark Wegierski
Partially based on an English-language text that appeared in Polish translation under the title, “Tendencje separatystyczne w Kanadzie.” (Separatist tendencies in Canada) trans. Olaf Swolkien, Nowe Sprawy Polityczne (Wolomin, Poland) no. 30 (2004-2005), pp. 77-81

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